verstehen libre.
Friday, July 14, 2006
the new news
* Chávez reportedly did indeed head out to Havana--and "urgently," at that--with several high-ranking Cuban officials who normally work in Caracas.
* Granma ran ANOTHER freaking "Raúl is so great, boy oh boy do we ever love Raúl" article. I won't link to it here because I don't want any trackbacks, but I saved it as a PDF and am happy to pass it along (last I checked it was still linked off the main page of the newspaper's site, anyway.) It is RIDICULOUSLY fawning, full of photos and an historical blow-by-blow of the man's revolutionary pedigree and character. This, more than anything else, is totally freaking me out.
* The Miami Herald ran a big old story acknowleging recent weirdness (although not the Rumor, per se) and observes that, yeah, sure enough, Raúl is being prepped to take formal control of the island. It's worth reading for some other background, too, like the recent high level cabinet shake-up.
* Turns out the big guy is scheduled to travel to Cordoba for a big Mercosur summit, which means we don't have to wait until 7/26 for confirmation (or at least good-as). We'll have a pretty good idea by 7/20 if he doesn't get any face time on Argentine teevee.
Things are getting seriously weird. The vultures are definitely circling. I personally am becoming convinced that Fidel isn't actually DEAD, but that his Parkinsons/Alzheimers/ailment of the week has/have gotten debilitating enough that the inner circle has finally taken action and is orchestrating a transfer-of-power while he still appears to be somewhat aware of it. El Jefe never has been one to step aside willingly, but it's not impossible to imagine that something happened to convince him that it is necessary for the good of his revolution. After all, he and Raúl have both been speaking openly about succession issues and the long-term prospects of the revolution for years...and, actually, the Raúl buzz over the past several months has been such that I wouldn't be surprised if this has been in the works for some time. Perhaps all of the Granma fluff has just been preparing the ground for a big announcement to coincide with the party on 7/26.
I'm a little mystified by the persistent emphasis on Raúl, especially if the less-urgent scenario here is the real one. There are a couple of other characters currently in the Politburo who strike me as far more plausible crowd-pleasers. The US would surely rather see one of those dudes take over (particularly Alarcón or Carlos Lage), as, I think, would most Cubans, since when Congress codified the embargo into law with Helms-Burton it included an institutional opposition not just to Fidel but to both brothers. In other words, we are legally sworn not to cooperate with Cuba until both brothers are dead or otherwise marginalized. Cubans obviously despise the embargo, and it isn't like the inner circle doesn't know every last detail of H-B. Soooo, hard to say what would be driving the choice of Raúl--unless of course we want to be horrible cynical realists and admit that the embargo is the best thing to ever happen to the brothers Castro, and keeping the embargo in force is more important to them than more sustainable, perhaps healthier choices. Choices that, you know, might actually benefit real Cubans in the long term. ¶ 1:53 PM
* Granma ran ANOTHER freaking "Raúl is so great, boy oh boy do we ever love Raúl" article. I won't link to it here because I don't want any trackbacks, but I saved it as a PDF and am happy to pass it along (last I checked it was still linked off the main page of the newspaper's site, anyway.) It is RIDICULOUSLY fawning, full of photos and an historical blow-by-blow of the man's revolutionary pedigree and character. This, more than anything else, is totally freaking me out.
* The Miami Herald ran a big old story acknowleging recent weirdness (although not the Rumor, per se) and observes that, yeah, sure enough, Raúl is being prepped to take formal control of the island. It's worth reading for some other background, too, like the recent high level cabinet shake-up.
* Turns out the big guy is scheduled to travel to Cordoba for a big Mercosur summit, which means we don't have to wait until 7/26 for confirmation (or at least good-as). We'll have a pretty good idea by 7/20 if he doesn't get any face time on Argentine teevee.
Things are getting seriously weird. The vultures are definitely circling. I personally am becoming convinced that Fidel isn't actually DEAD, but that his Parkinsons/Alzheimers/ailment of the week has/have gotten debilitating enough that the inner circle has finally taken action and is orchestrating a transfer-of-power while he still appears to be somewhat aware of it. El Jefe never has been one to step aside willingly, but it's not impossible to imagine that something happened to convince him that it is necessary for the good of his revolution. After all, he and Raúl have both been speaking openly about succession issues and the long-term prospects of the revolution for years...and, actually, the Raúl buzz over the past several months has been such that I wouldn't be surprised if this has been in the works for some time. Perhaps all of the Granma fluff has just been preparing the ground for a big announcement to coincide with the party on 7/26.
I'm a little mystified by the persistent emphasis on Raúl, especially if the less-urgent scenario here is the real one. There are a couple of other characters currently in the Politburo who strike me as far more plausible crowd-pleasers. The US would surely rather see one of those dudes take over (particularly Alarcón or Carlos Lage), as, I think, would most Cubans, since when Congress codified the embargo into law with Helms-Burton it included an institutional opposition not just to Fidel but to both brothers. In other words, we are legally sworn not to cooperate with Cuba until both brothers are dead or otherwise marginalized. Cubans obviously despise the embargo, and it isn't like the inner circle doesn't know every last detail of H-B. Soooo, hard to say what would be driving the choice of Raúl--unless of course we want to be horrible cynical realists and admit that the embargo is the best thing to ever happen to the brothers Castro, and keeping the embargo in force is more important to them than more sustainable, perhaps healthier choices. Choices that, you know, might actually benefit real Cubans in the long term. ¶ 1:53 PM
