verstehen libre.
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
no tengo nada
Same story. Nobody knows a damn thing. Here's a list of all of the relevant arguments that I can think of, in case anyone cares about my humble, non-Cubano opinion.
He's so not dead because...
1. He has played dead sooooo many times before. He's especially fond of playing dead when a) Cuba is either not getting enough favorable attention b) Miami is getting too much favorable attention, c) he wants to take a kind of informal opinion poll. All of these conditions are currently present. Rumors flew in March, too; they flew after he fell; they fly all the time.
2. In case you missed it, the US gubmint JUST, like, yesterday, issued its annual "I-hate-Castro" report, which urges "transition, not succession" upon el Jefe's demise and insists upon "hastened" change (nothing new here, but it's incrementally more insistent than previous reports, all the same). This is precisely the sort of thing that could precipitate a dead-Castro rumor in Little Havana. Wishing does not necessarily make it true.
3. The timing is additionally fishy as we're coming up on the 26th of July, which is a huge holiday for Castro's revolution. It is a guaranteed public appearance for Fidel--unless, of course, he's dead or close to it. Hiding out and nurturing death rumors for a while to a) figure out how the hell to spin the CAFC report and b) play the 7/26 show without inviting public protest would not be the stupidest thing the Castro team ever did.
He's totally dead (or dying) because...
1. Usually dead Castro rumors are squelched quickly, if only through the exile grapevine. This one has been raging now for a day and a half, and indeed keeps growing.
2. I have always said that when the guy does kick the bucket, we'll be the last to know: nobody wants an exit crisis, nobody wants rioting in Havana or Miami; nobody wants the appearance of uncertainty or Katrina-like ineptitude, on either side.
3. The Venezuelan connection. Reports of Fidel's demise appeared and then disappeared within a few minutes from the state-run newspaper there. Chávez then hastened to issue a small proclamation that Fidel was in better health than ever and will live to 100 at least. Various OTHER rumors maintain that Hugo has flown to Havana to sit with Fidel as he gasps his final breaths and/or to get his story straight with the Politburo before any announcements are made.
4. His doctor just, like, last week made a whole big deal about what fabulous health Fidel is in and how he's going to live to be 140. 140. I mean, WTF?
5. For the past 6 months or so the Cuban press has been steadily issuing front-page reports in Granma about the "strength" of the Revolution, how it will outlast any one man, how after all Jose Martí was killed in the first battle of the island's fight for liberation and the spirit of liberation lives on, how Fidel's hermano Raúl is really an exemplary character and comrade and commander and designated successor and not at all the sickly alcoholic we think he is, etcetcetc. It's really been quite over the top.
6. Ricardo Alarcón, the president of the island's National Assembly and the man most likely apart from Raúl to take over from Fidel (in my opinion, anyway) has been acting awfully weird. He lacks a certain...certainty in his boilerplate response to the CAFC report, and he's been on Cuban TV a lot more than usual (as has Raúl). Ricardo is famous for being the coolest cucumber in the inner circle, so it is a little worrisome to see him lose any appearance of control.
....
Oh, god, there are a lot more points on both sides, but I got 4 hours of sleep thanks to last night's lengthy vigil, and, well, I'm hungry. More soon. Also, possible updates. Last I heard things were leaning (completely unofficially, of course) to "not true." My most trusted source, whom I shall henceforth refer to as X, also says his/her gut is leaning toward untrue. ¶ 6:32 PM
He's so not dead because...
1. He has played dead sooooo many times before. He's especially fond of playing dead when a) Cuba is either not getting enough favorable attention b) Miami is getting too much favorable attention, c) he wants to take a kind of informal opinion poll. All of these conditions are currently present. Rumors flew in March, too; they flew after he fell; they fly all the time.
2. In case you missed it, the US gubmint JUST, like, yesterday, issued its annual "I-hate-Castro" report, which urges "transition, not succession" upon el Jefe's demise and insists upon "hastened" change (nothing new here, but it's incrementally more insistent than previous reports, all the same). This is precisely the sort of thing that could precipitate a dead-Castro rumor in Little Havana. Wishing does not necessarily make it true.
3. The timing is additionally fishy as we're coming up on the 26th of July, which is a huge holiday for Castro's revolution. It is a guaranteed public appearance for Fidel--unless, of course, he's dead or close to it. Hiding out and nurturing death rumors for a while to a) figure out how the hell to spin the CAFC report and b) play the 7/26 show without inviting public protest would not be the stupidest thing the Castro team ever did.
He's totally dead (or dying) because...
1. Usually dead Castro rumors are squelched quickly, if only through the exile grapevine. This one has been raging now for a day and a half, and indeed keeps growing.
2. I have always said that when the guy does kick the bucket, we'll be the last to know: nobody wants an exit crisis, nobody wants rioting in Havana or Miami; nobody wants the appearance of uncertainty or Katrina-like ineptitude, on either side.
3. The Venezuelan connection. Reports of Fidel's demise appeared and then disappeared within a few minutes from the state-run newspaper there. Chávez then hastened to issue a small proclamation that Fidel was in better health than ever and will live to 100 at least. Various OTHER rumors maintain that Hugo has flown to Havana to sit with Fidel as he gasps his final breaths and/or to get his story straight with the Politburo before any announcements are made.
4. His doctor just, like, last week made a whole big deal about what fabulous health Fidel is in and how he's going to live to be 140. 140. I mean, WTF?
5. For the past 6 months or so the Cuban press has been steadily issuing front-page reports in Granma about the "strength" of the Revolution, how it will outlast any one man, how after all Jose Martí was killed in the first battle of the island's fight for liberation and the spirit of liberation lives on, how Fidel's hermano Raúl is really an exemplary character and comrade and commander and designated successor and not at all the sickly alcoholic we think he is, etcetcetc. It's really been quite over the top.
6. Ricardo Alarcón, the president of the island's National Assembly and the man most likely apart from Raúl to take over from Fidel (in my opinion, anyway) has been acting awfully weird. He lacks a certain...certainty in his boilerplate response to the CAFC report, and he's been on Cuban TV a lot more than usual (as has Raúl). Ricardo is famous for being the coolest cucumber in the inner circle, so it is a little worrisome to see him lose any appearance of control.
....
Oh, god, there are a lot more points on both sides, but I got 4 hours of sleep thanks to last night's lengthy vigil, and, well, I'm hungry. More soon. Also, possible updates. Last I heard things were leaning (completely unofficially, of course) to "not true." My most trusted source, whom I shall henceforth refer to as X, also says his/her gut is leaning toward untrue. ¶ 6:32 PM
