Raúl Castro: possibly capable of making his own decisions According to the Miami Herald, a newly-released recording strongly suggests that Raúl Castro was the one who ordered the "Brothers to the Rescue" planes shot down in 1996. That's definitely not the version of the story I've always heard--that version has Fidel rising to the occasion in the moment of crisis like Dick Cheney on 9/11 and making his big ol' manly decision (against the wishes of the moderates on the Politburo, of course). Fidel denied it, but there have even been rumors for years--started by Alarcón, I'm pretty sure--that he may have even shot down the plane himself. It's important to get this story straight, because this was the incident that derailed years of productive work on both sides of the Florida Straits to end the embargo and normalize relations. Clinton (who won Florida in 1992 but lost it in 1996, let's not forget) was forced into agreeing to the Helms-Burton Act of 1996 after the shootdown, a bill that did all kinds of awful things but most notably codified the embargo into law for the first time. It was a crucial moment in Cuba's post-Soviet transformation, and I've always argued that it was a powerful signal from Fidel to moderate elites that the old Cuba was back. That analysis isn't entirely off-base if it was in fact Raúl who gave the order and not Fidel, but it definitely puts Raúl in a very new light.

Of course, it's also possible that the Cuban gubmint could be releasing this "old tape" now in order to give us precisely just that very idea. "See? Raúl is totally world-leader material!" Isn't Cuba-watching fun??  ¶ 8:28 AM