verstehen libre.
Sunday, August 06, 2006
Russia: not looking so good
According to a couple of experts on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Putin is moving ever-closer to that deadly third term:
Peter Reddaway, an Emeritus Professor of Political Science & International Affairs at George Washington University and a member of its Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, and Donald Jensen, RFE/RL's Director of Communications, both agreed Russia is "not a democracy" and that under "ever greater authoritarianism," or prompted by a domestic crisis, Putin might seek to prolong his time in office.
Reddaway observed that the "most plausible scenario" is for Putin to "opt for early elections" both to the Duma and for the presidency, because Putin would want to "act before he becomes a lame duck" so that he is in a position "to exert maximum control over the succession process," By acting early, while economic and political conditions remain favorable, Putin will have less trouble promoting his own candidate and will catch international observers, as well as "what is left of the opposition" off-guard. The "element of surprise can be very valuable in an authoritarian system," Reddaway said.
In reviewing the way in which Russia "is ruled" today, Jensen said that the system shares "significant continuities with the Yeltsin era," in that "money and power are closely interrelated" and "are not separated by the rule of law." The president acts as an arbiter that "maintains and balances the demands" of a divided elite, who pursue self-interest by selecting a successor able to "maintain the status-quo," according to Jensen. National elections simply serve to "validate the elite's selection," Jensen said.
Due to a fractious elite, weak rule of law, and the Russian governance system's patrimonial character, Jensen concluded the system is "highly fragile" and "fundamentally unstable... especially as succession approaches." The system "remains in balance" and is allowed to function due to the "passivity of the population." If in-fighting among the ruling elites were to reach such a level that the population's passivity was to end, the system could easily be subject to "an abrupt change," Jensen said.
In other morning news, Reuters admits to doctoring photos (badly) from Lebanon; Hong Kong just passed an incredibly repressive surveillance law; Hezbollah just carried out its deadliest attack yet on Israel; and the latest Cuba rumor is that Castro is scheduled for a second surgery.
Maybe things will be better after I have some coffee. ¶ 10:45 AM
Peter Reddaway, an Emeritus Professor of Political Science & International Affairs at George Washington University and a member of its Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, and Donald Jensen, RFE/RL's Director of Communications, both agreed Russia is "not a democracy" and that under "ever greater authoritarianism," or prompted by a domestic crisis, Putin might seek to prolong his time in office.
Reddaway observed that the "most plausible scenario" is for Putin to "opt for early elections" both to the Duma and for the presidency, because Putin would want to "act before he becomes a lame duck" so that he is in a position "to exert maximum control over the succession process," By acting early, while economic and political conditions remain favorable, Putin will have less trouble promoting his own candidate and will catch international observers, as well as "what is left of the opposition" off-guard. The "element of surprise can be very valuable in an authoritarian system," Reddaway said.
In reviewing the way in which Russia "is ruled" today, Jensen said that the system shares "significant continuities with the Yeltsin era," in that "money and power are closely interrelated" and "are not separated by the rule of law." The president acts as an arbiter that "maintains and balances the demands" of a divided elite, who pursue self-interest by selecting a successor able to "maintain the status-quo," according to Jensen. National elections simply serve to "validate the elite's selection," Jensen said.
Due to a fractious elite, weak rule of law, and the Russian governance system's patrimonial character, Jensen concluded the system is "highly fragile" and "fundamentally unstable... especially as succession approaches." The system "remains in balance" and is allowed to function due to the "passivity of the population." If in-fighting among the ruling elites were to reach such a level that the population's passivity was to end, the system could easily be subject to "an abrupt change," Jensen said.
In other morning news, Reuters admits to doctoring photos (badly) from Lebanon; Hong Kong just passed an incredibly repressive surveillance law; Hezbollah just carried out its deadliest attack yet on Israel; and the latest Cuba rumor is that Castro is scheduled for a second surgery.
Maybe things will be better after I have some coffee. ¶ 10:45 AM
