
verstehen libre.
mayday, mayday, mayday
Castro has handed over power "temporarily" to Raúl. He admitted to needing major surgery. He has intestinal bleeding from the "stress" of his appearances last week. At least, that's how the official statement reads (not read by Castro himself, significantly). More info in
WaPo. More details as I learn them.
daily show drinking game
(This is stolen shamelessly from the
Fabulous Girl, who stole it from Wonkette...)
Take a drink every time Jon:
Says "Ehhhh… Not so much."
Says "Awk-ward."
Says "Nicely done."
Does his "Heh-heh-heh" Bush impression.
Shouts "Damn you!" at ceiling camera.
Says "You just blew my mind."
Makes an out-of-nowhere Jewish reference.
Says in a Foghorn Leghorne voice, "I said good DAY, suh"
Does some exaggerated chin stroking.
Does some exaggerated circular nipple stroking.
Pretends to mop his brow with his tie.
Imitates a comedian who 96% of Comedy Central’s audience has never actually seen, whether it’s his B-minus Jerry Lewis, his C-minus Woody Allen or his D-plus Johnny Carson.
Mentions his kids in an interview with someone who also has kids.
I would add to this a few other beloved but still somewhat annoying standard tried and oh-so-true Jon moves:
* The deer-in-the-headlights move when he's just watched a trailer of his guest du jour's latest movie, often accompanied by the crawling-out-from-behind-the-desk move, which while well-worn never fails to amuse.
* The ever-so-popular eye-rubbing "Whaaaa???" move, which is, seriously Jon, starting to get kinda lame.
But, still--you have to love the man, which means also loving his increasingly-predictable arsenal of physical comedy. What's not to love?
signs
One of the things that interests me most about Cuba--and that I find interesting and worth paying attention to in any authoritarian regime--is the loyalty paradox. How do the subjects in such a regime meaningfully signal loyalty when they're required to demonstrate it constantly? What makes some demonstrations of loyalty more meaningful than others? And on the other side of the authoritarian equation, how do iron-fisted leaders ask for help when they're supposed to be all-knowing and all-powerful? These are a few of the questions that keep me up at night, seriously.
So, considering that, Fidel's 26 de Julio speech--the equivalent to the State of the Union address here--is reeeeeally interesting for a couple of reasons. For one thing, he gave the opening speech in Bayamo, not Havana, which is a city in Cuba's East that is legendary for being a pro-Castro stronghold and exists in popular Cuban imagination (and Fidel's increasingly-foggy memory) as the cradle of the revolution--Fidel and the boys crash-landed the Granma on the Eastern coast, and the mountains that they spent most of the revolution hiding in are also there. To this day, in fact, Castro himself represents the city of Santiago in Cuba's parliament. Which is a whole other problem, but too much to worry about today. It's also where he began his famous march into Havana, stopping in cities all along the island to woo the masses. In the past 15 years, Castro and company have flooded the East with extra money and other goodies to keep the population stable and maintain general goodwill. But even though he was among good friends in Bayamo this morning, Castro still said the following, which I think is kind of amazing:
Castro, who will be 80 on Aug 13, made fun of his long-time ideological nemesis the United States in a speech in which he said more Cubans are reaching 100 thanks to the social services of his Communist government.
"But, our little neighbours to the north should not fear, I am not planning to be in office at that age," the left-wing firebrand said.Full story
here. I've got a LOT to say about this but I'll wait for the rest of the speeches from the day to filter out. I will say that I think that comment is a Really Big Deal. I also want to point out that while Fidel was off hanging out with Hugo visiting Che's childhood home and bumming around Argentina, Raúl was back in Havana hanging out with Leonid Maltsev--the defense minister of Belarus. The plot thickens. And probably not in a good way, like a nice soup. More like a clogged artery.
aaaarrrrggghhh
Remember when I was bitching a few months ago about Fidel and Alexandr Lukashenko being all BFF? Yeah, well, now apparently
Hugo is getting in on the game:

Also:

According to Belarus's Foreign Minister, the two partners signed seven agreements on topics ranging from military/technical cooperation, made agreements about economic and energy issues, and signed a friendship/strategic partnership declaration. Bilateral trade between the two was about $16 million last year. Chávez: "The jaws of imperialism and hegemony have clenched over Belarus. Our countries should keep our hands on our knives. ... We see here a model social state like the one we are beginning to create."
Sweet merciful crap. This just is so not good. Next Hugo heads to Russia, to meet with Putin and sign an arms deal.
distraction of the day
Pandora. Awesomeness.
Also, this photo:

...which for some reason I find strangely beautiful and soothing.
viva fidel...or...something else?
Fidel is alive, apparently, and in Argentina for his big summit. On the other hand, he looks like this:

My money is still on a 7/26 regime-transition announcement. Not that Raúl is in any better shape, but at least his handlers aren't propping his big old head against car windows like
Bernie on the boat. Good lord.
*update*...here's more evidence:

Ummmm...dude. I am officially frightened and confused.
fidel in argentina....?
His official schedule has him flying out of Cuba this afternoon and showing up in Argentina sometime around early evening. The latest craaaaazy twist in this whole saga is that apparently 2 legislators in Argentina are pushing the Argentine government to detain Castro as soon as he sets foot on the country's soil, so he can be tried for crimes against humanity. In other words, yes, he's going to Argentina, but no, he might not actually get off the plane. Mmmhmmm. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on this today...
OT
This is totally awesome.
while WWIV rages on...
Granma reportedly ran a big ol' "we love Fidel" retrospective today...without actually acknowledging anything. More in a bit...
the new news
* Chávez reportedly did indeed head out to Havana--and "urgently," at that--with several high-ranking Cuban officials who normally work in Caracas.
* Granma ran ANOTHER freaking "Raúl is so great, boy oh boy do we ever love Raúl" article. I won't link to it here because I don't want any trackbacks, but I saved it as a PDF and am happy to pass it along (last I checked it was still linked off the main page of the newspaper's site, anyway.) It is RIDICULOUSLY fawning, full of photos and an historical blow-by-blow of the man's revolutionary pedigree and character. This, more than anything else, is totally freaking me out.
* The Miami Herald
ran a big old story acknowleging recent weirdness (although not the Rumor, per se) and observes that, yeah, sure enough, Raúl is being prepped to take formal control of the island. It's worth reading for some other background, too, like the recent high level cabinet shake-up.
* Turns out the big guy is scheduled to travel to Cordoba for a big Mercosur summit, which means we don't have to wait until 7/26 for confirmation (or at least good-as). We'll have a pretty good idea by 7/20 if he doesn't get any face time on Argentine teevee.
Things are getting seriously weird. The vultures are definitely circling. I personally am becoming convinced that Fidel isn't actually DEAD, but that his Parkinsons/Alzheimers/ailment of the week has/have gotten debilitating enough that the inner circle has finally taken action and is orchestrating a transfer-of-power while he still appears to be somewhat aware of it. El Jefe never has been one to step aside willingly, but it's not impossible to imagine that something happened to convince him that it is necessary for the good of his revolution. After all, he and Raúl have both been speaking openly about succession issues and the long-term prospects of the revolution for years...and, actually, the Raúl buzz over the past several months has been such that I wouldn't be surprised if this has been in the works for some time. Perhaps all of the Granma fluff has just been preparing the ground for a big announcement to coincide with the party on 7/26.
I'm a little mystified by the persistent emphasis on Raúl, especially if the less-urgent scenario here is the real one. There are a couple of other characters currently in the Politburo who strike me as far more plausible crowd-pleasers. The US would surely rather see one of those dudes take over (particularly Alarcón or Carlos Lage), as, I think, would most Cubans, since when Congress codified the embargo into law with Helms-Burton it included an institutional opposition not just to Fidel but to both brothers. In other words, we are legally sworn not to cooperate with Cuba until
both brothers are dead or otherwise marginalized. Cubans obviously despise the embargo, and it isn't like the inner circle doesn't know every last detail of H-B. Soooo, hard to say what would be driving the choice of Raúl--unless of course we want to be horrible cynical realists and admit that the embargo is the best thing to ever happen to the brothers Castro, and keeping the embargo in force is more important to them than more sustainable, perhaps healthier choices. Choices that, you know, might actually benefit real Cubans in the long term.
uhhhhhh...
So, today Alarcón actually issued a statement that the rumors are not true. That's a little alarming, for a couple of reasons.
Eso (el rumor) no tiene ni pies ni cabeza. Él mismo ha hecho muchas bromas varias veces sobre que el día que sea verdad nadie lo va a creer, porque a cada rato sale el cuento ese. La única realidad objetiva que está ahí y que va a quedar para la historia es exactamente al revés, que Fidel Castro tiene ese privilegio: ser un hombre extraordinariamente saludable.Rough translation: this rumor doesn't have any basis in truth...Fidel himself has often joked that when it actually IS true nobody will believe it because it has been untrue so many times before...the only REAL truth is that Fidel is very privileged to be a man of extraordinary health. Etc, etc.
Look, I realize that I'm extra paranoid and am perhaps looking for trouble...but coupled with Alarcón's recent erratic behavior, I can't help but wonder if this is a perfect example of the Homer Simpson doctrine. Remember the recent episode when Bart gets kidnapped by an overly-maternal monkey?
Marge: Where's Bart? I haven't seen him since you came home.
Homer: (amusingly indignant) Ohhhh! You haven't seen Bart for a few hours, so you AUTOMATICALLY assume I let something TERRIBLE happen!
Marge: I didn't say that!
Homer: I know what you think. When stupid Homer wasn't looking, Bart got kidnapped by a monkey!
Marge: (appalled) I would never think something like that!
Homer: And now I'm using sarcasm to confess the whole thing, so later I can say that I already told you!
Marge: (walking away) Sorry I asked.
I'm just sayin'. It's just a little suspicious is all.
no tengo nada
Same story. Nobody knows a damn thing. Here's a list of all of the relevant arguments that I can think of, in case anyone cares about my humble, non-Cubano opinion.
He's so not dead because...1. He has played dead sooooo many times before. He's especially fond of playing dead when a) Cuba is either not getting enough favorable attention b) Miami is getting
too much favorable attention, c) he wants to take a kind of informal opinion poll. All of these conditions are currently present. Rumors flew in March, too; they flew after he fell; they fly all the time.
2. In case you missed it, the US gubmint JUST, like, yesterday, issued its annual "I-hate-Castro" report, which urges "transition, not succession" upon el Jefe's demise and insists upon "hastened" change (nothing new here, but it's incrementally more insistent than previous reports, all the same). This is precisely the sort of thing that could precipitate a dead-Castro rumor in Little Havana. Wishing does not necessarily make it true.
3. The timing is additionally fishy as we're coming up on the 26th of July, which is a huge holiday for Castro's revolution. It is a guaranteed public appearance for Fidel--unless, of course, he's dead or close to it. Hiding out and nurturing death rumors for a while to a) figure out how the hell to spin the CAFC report and b) play the 7/26 show without inviting public protest would not be the stupidest thing the Castro team ever did.
He's totally dead (or dying) because...1. Usually dead Castro rumors are squelched quickly, if only through the exile grapevine. This one has been raging now for a day and a half, and indeed keeps growing.
2. I have always said that when the guy does kick the bucket, we'll be the last to know: nobody wants an exit crisis, nobody wants rioting in Havana or Miami; nobody wants the appearance of uncertainty or Katrina-like ineptitude, on either side.
3. The Venezuelan connection. Reports of Fidel's demise appeared and then disappeared within a few minutes from the state-run newspaper there. Chávez then hastened to issue a small proclamation that Fidel was in better health than ever and will live to 100 at least. Various OTHER rumors maintain that Hugo has flown to Havana to sit with Fidel as he gasps his final breaths and/or to get his story straight with the Politburo before any announcements are made.
4. His doctor just, like, last week made a whole big deal about what fabulous health Fidel is in and how he's going to live to be 140. 140. I mean, WTF?
5. For the past 6 months or so the Cuban press has been steadily issuing front-page reports in Granma about the "strength" of the Revolution, how it will outlast any one man, how after all Jose Martí was killed in the first battle of the island's fight for liberation and the spirit of liberation lives on, how Fidel's hermano Raúl is really an exemplary character and comrade and commander and designated successor and not at all the sickly alcoholic we think he is, etcetcetc. It's really been quite over the top.
6. Ricardo Alarcón, the president of the island's National Assembly and the man most likely apart from Raúl to take over from Fidel (in my opinion, anyway) has been acting awfully weird. He lacks a certain...certainty in his boilerplate response to the CAFC report, and he's been on Cuban TV a lot more than usual (as has Raúl). Ricardo is famous for being the coolest cucumber in the inner circle, so it is a little worrisome to see him lose any appearance of control.
....
Oh, god, there are a lot more points on both sides, but I got 4 hours of sleep thanks to last night's lengthy vigil, and, well, I'm hungry. More soon. Also, possible updates. Last I heard things were leaning (completely unofficially, of course) to "not true." My most trusted source, whom I shall henceforth refer to as X, also says his/her gut is leaning toward untrue.
still no confirmation...
...either way. The exile community is breaking out the champagne, but that isn't super shocking. I've been glued to crappy Miami AM radio, and I don't know how much more of it I can take. More details as they become available.
Chávez
NOW rumor has it that Chávez is on his way to Havana, where Castro is on life support. Miami exiles are nothing if not imaginative, but this is still the most serious Castro-is-dead-and/or-dying rumor to come along since I've been seriously Cuba-watching. Tickets to Miami are not cheap. I'm gonna need more coffee.
update, sort of
On one hand,
Wonkette has picked this up, which makes me think it couldn't possibly be true. On the other, the
Venezuelan press initially reported it, then
retracted it and is now running a big headline that reads "Chavez: Fidel está más fuerte que nunca," and throws in a "¡Larga vida para Fidel!," which seriously freaks me out. I'm going to go look at tickets to Miami now, just in case.
whooooooa
Some of my sources are starting to freak out just a little bit about the ever-popular rumor that Fidel is either gravely ill or has possibly even died. This tends to happen a couple of times a year, but this is the kind of rumor that has to actually be true one of these times. I'll keep y'all posted.
heh heh heh
We shall return to our usual programming, er, at some point, but for now here's a little bit of
mildly terrifying absurdity from good ol' Uncle Ted Stevens. Here's just a little taste of what his excellence has to contribute to the net neutrality debate:
I just the other day got, an internet was sent by my staff at 10 o’clock in the morning on Friday and I just got it yesterday. Why?
Because it got tangled up with all these things going on the internet commercially.
So you want to talk about the consumer? Let’s talk about you and me. We use this internet to communicate and we aren’t using it for commercial purposes. [...]
They want to deliver vast amounts of information over the internet. And again, the internet is not something you just dump something on. It’s not a truck.
It’s a series of tubes.
And if you don’t understand those tubes can be filled and if they are filled, when you put your message in, it gets in line and its going to be delayed by anyone that puts into that tube enormous amounts of material, enormous amounts of material.
Now we have a separate Department of Defense internet now, did you know that?
Do you know why?
Because they have to have theirs delivered immediately. They can’t afford getting delayed by other people.
OMGROFL, and a little bit of cryin, too. Strangely enough, Uncle Ted's theory of how the internet works reminds me of nothing as much as Don "Yosemite Sam" Young's tortured election/Iditarod analogy:
We've got a great leader and we have a fine swing dog and you've got a hell of a wheel dog. The leader leads it, the swing dog moves the rest of the team to follow the leader in the right direction. And the wheel dog does all the work. That's the team we've got. And we get home on time when that team is in place. You put a strange swing dog behind that leader and the poor wheel dog is going to be overworked. I will be lifting a lot of extra weight and maybe not getting quite home on time if we have a swing dog that is going the opposite direction the leader is going.Seriously, people. What in the name of all that is holy is wrong with the Alaskan congressional delegation?