Cuba news round-up * There is a tropical storm-might-turn-into-hurricane that is actually named ERNESTO on its way to the island. Seriously, Ernesto. WTF.

* Speaking of el Che, I finally saw "The Lost City" and holy crap was it ever bad. So, so, so very bad. Like, second only to "Freddy Got Fingered" bad. I had heard at least the music was good and it looks pretty--a sort of love letter to Havana--but those are evil, vicious lies.

* Chávez apparently went back to Havana this week to visit his friend. Not any publicity this time. Not sure what's up with that.

* Russian media sources are reporting that Fidel's first wife, Mirta Diaz-Balart, is in Cuba for the first time in 40 years to make peace with the man who basically abandoned her and kidnapped their son. This little news item baffles me completely; it's pretty impossible to imagine her returning to Cuba unless he really is deathly ill or dead already. Still waiting for more confirmation on this one.

* But this is the weirdest piece of news of all--rumor has it that Castro is turning back to Catholicism now that he's dying.

Okay, more soon. Back to packing.  ¶ 1:47 PM

  dreams That's the last time I watch a crazy bank heist movie right before bed. Last night I dreamed that a group of terrorists was trying to steal--I swear I couldn't make this shit up if I tried--the freaking Liberty Bell, and a crack team of cops and lawyers was trying to stop them (a team headed by none other than Big Shot Lawyer, of course). The pesky terrorists wanted the bell because, in my cracked-out dream-brain, the Liberty Bell is secretly the source of all freedom and democracy in the world, and whoever has it gets all the freedom and democracy while everyone else is stuck with stupid old tyranny. Makes perfect sense, right? I guess this is what happens when I watch crazy movies before bed and I happen to be flying to Philadelphia in a few days.

In other news, Sarah Palin evidently wiped the floor with Frank Murkowski's ass yesterday. Damn.  ¶ 10:55 AM

  it isn't paranoid if they're really after you So, I read all of the moonbat exile blogs all the time to get the scoop on Miami politics, and one of the better-known and better-read moonbats posted this call to action early this morning, with a few updates since then. I'm posting it because I think it's a nice little window into both how much power the exile community actually has (or could potentially have) and perhaps more importantly how they perceive themselves and that power. Not going to link 'cause I don't want the trackbacks.

White House Conference Call on Cuba - URGENT

This morning at 10:30, I've been invited to participate in a White House Conference Call on Cuba with Dan Fisk, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs, and Caleb McCarry, Cuba Transition Coordinator, U.S. Department of State. We'll be discussing, obviously, this US administration's actions vis-a-vis Cuba.

If there's anything you all want to let the White House know or if there's any questions you would like answers to, please let me know in the comments ASAP.

Update: For starters, Ill be mentioning the possibility of charges being filed against raul castro for his involvement in the Brothers to the Rescue murders. Ill be voicing displeasure about the wet foot/dry foot policy and Ill be asking about "advocacy agreements" added to Cuba trade contracts.

This is your chance to have your voices heard, folks. Please take advantage of this opportunity.

Update: Conference call just ended. There were quite a few Cuban-Americans and others participating including Carlos Eire, Alvaro Vargas Llosa, Jose Basulto, Ninoska, Carlos Mayans, Cuban-American Mayor of Wichita, Kansas...too many to note all. I was quite humbled to be among such estemmed company and to tell the truth quite nervous.

All asked important questions. The raul castro indictment topic was addressed and the response was that the government is in the process of authenticating the recently released recording and will make a determination once that is complete. Also addresed was the US government's stepping up of diplomatic outreach to allies and other countries to garner support for the democratic process in Cuba. Carlos Eire, specifically, addressed the PR efforts needed to help garner understanding of the realities of Cuba.

The new immigration policy for Cuban doctors was mentioned and we were told there have been quite a few doctors already taking advantage of said policy with a list of many more waiting in the wings.

Mine was the second to last question and I fumbled through a follow-up of Carlos' questions, asking what efforts the administration is undertaking to garner support for the Cuban cause not just from the rest of the world and from within Cuba, but to help educate the US public on the realities of Cuba.

Obviously, these conference calls are just one of the measures being taken, both to listen to what our community thinks but to help us get the word out to the American public. In essense, the US governmnet will continue and in some instances expand their efforts for support from the American people, but the onus is on us to help deliver that message.

It is we who have to keep speaking the truth about Cuba, shouting even if it appears no one is listening, until more eyes are opened and more hearts are touched.

Our work is only beginning, folks.  ¶ 10:44 AM

  Raúl Castro: possibly capable of making his own decisions According to the Miami Herald, a newly-released recording strongly suggests that Raúl Castro was the one who ordered the "Brothers to the Rescue" planes shot down in 1996. That's definitely not the version of the story I've always heard--that version has Fidel rising to the occasion in the moment of crisis like Dick Cheney on 9/11 and making his big ol' manly decision (against the wishes of the moderates on the Politburo, of course). Fidel denied it, but there have even been rumors for years--started by Alarcón, I'm pretty sure--that he may have even shot down the plane himself. It's important to get this story straight, because this was the incident that derailed years of productive work on both sides of the Florida Straits to end the embargo and normalize relations. Clinton (who won Florida in 1992 but lost it in 1996, let's not forget) was forced into agreeing to the Helms-Burton Act of 1996 after the shootdown, a bill that did all kinds of awful things but most notably codified the embargo into law for the first time. It was a crucial moment in Cuba's post-Soviet transformation, and I've always argued that it was a powerful signal from Fidel to moderate elites that the old Cuba was back. That analysis isn't entirely off-base if it was in fact Raúl who gave the order and not Fidel, but it definitely puts Raúl in a very new light.

Of course, it's also possible that the Cuban gubmint could be releasing this "old tape" now in order to give us precisely just that very idea. "See? Raúl is totally world-leader material!" Isn't Cuba-watching fun??  ¶ 8:28 AM

  slow day Not much to report today, so here's a little blast from the past courtesy of the wonder that is youtube: Castro speaking English! In his PJs! With his kid! Making a now-famous promise about his beard that he has not kept! And Edward R. Murrow smoking on camera! If you haven't seen this one, it's a true classic...  ¶ 2:37 PM

  fun with the internets Google maps flight simulator!  ¶ 1:01 PM

  Raúl speaks The guy finally made a public statement! Key points:

* Fidel is (allegedly) making a fine recovery, thanks in no small part to the "love and dedication" of his doctors.

* Reserves were mobilized so quickly after the transition announcement because "we could not rule out the risk of someone going crazy, or even crazier, within the U.S. government."

* "Absolute tranquility is reigning in the country." (Translation: we have finally found a temporary solution to our internal Politburo disputes, probably by tranquilizing Pérez Roque.)

And he explains (sort of) his very weird lack of public activity until now:

"As a point of fact, I am not used to making frequent appearances in public, except at times when it is required. Many tasks related to defense should not be made public and have to be handled with maximum care, and that has been one of my fundamental responsibilities. [...] I have always been discreet, that is my way, and in passing I will clarify that I am thinking of continuing in that way. But that has not been the fundamental reason why I don't appear very often in the mass media; simply, it has not been necessary."  ¶ 10:10 AM

  the movie! the movie! OMG I'll write more about this later, but for now: there's finally a trailer for Richard Linklater's (!!!!) film version of "Fast Food Nation." Woooooo!!! The vegetarian revolution is coming!!!  ¶ 9:58 PM

  the end is near If you have some time to kill and you're not afraid of the awful truth, go here and enter 711391--you'll find yourself face-to-face with the list of search terms entered over a two-month period by one of AOL's recently-monitored users. I can't even explain how overwhelming it is--it's an incredibly heartbreaking and bizarre blend of vanity, "Christian" values, insecurity, sexual manipulation, and something akin to a descent into madness. It's like Dostoevsky meets the world wide internets, except worse, because you know it's all true. Via Seattle's only newspaper.  ¶ 1:01 PM

  Russia: still scary Still not much to report on Cuba, apart from the truly weird video of Hugo and Fidel--and the reminder it provides of Castro's apparent obsession with world-leader bobblehead dolls. I first noticed a big row of them behind his desk in Oliver Stone's "Looking for Fidel" documentary a few years ago, and it seems that he brought at least a couple of them with him to the hospital:



Anyway, the real news of the day is, again, from Russia:

Mr Putin's aides are concerned that United Russia, the pro-Kremlin party that dominates parliament, is jaded and losing the support of the electorate. Vladislav Surkov, deputy head of the presidential administration, said Russia needed "a second major political party, which will need time to come to life, though we've become used to thinking that everything must be done at one go". He said it could eventually replace United Russia, which lacks ideology besides offering unwavering support for the president.

This is apparently Putin's way of getting around Russia's increasingly popular "against all" electoral option, which was just abolished. Only in Russia can a government official speak openly about creating a virtual opposition and discuss a long-range strategy of managed democracy in full detail. 2008 is just getting to be waaaaay too soon.  ¶ 9:34 AM

  WWII anachronisms and more good coffee news! Russia and Japan really need to find a solution to their Kuril Islands/Northern Territories dispute, already. Fishermen are captured and driven out of the area all the time, but the BBC says this is the first time in fifty years that Russia has actually shot someone over it--an allegedly stubborn fisherman who refused to get out of there. Thanks to the USSR's seizure of the islands in 1945 and Russia's stubborn refusal to give them back to Japan (which, in my humble and insignificant opinion, they should really obviously do), the two countries haven't yet signed a peace treaty, and are technically still at war with each other.

In other news, boy am I happy to see the recent run of coffee-is-actually-good-for-you studies. The life-sustaining beverage is getting credit lately for preventing all kinds of unpleasant things: type II diabetes, cirrhosis of the liver, and even heart disease (!) Here's the single craziest line of today's NYT article:

In another analysis, published in July in the same journal, researchers found that a typical serving of coffee contains more antioxidants than typical servings of grape juice, blueberries, raspberries and oranges.

Probably all lies, like the red wine and dark chocolate are good-for-you lies, but I'll take them all anyway. It's nice to be reminded that life is so deliciously worth living.  ¶ 4:36 PM

  musical distraction of the day I'm a huge DeVotchKa fan from way back, but the new album--charmingly titled "Curse Your Little Heart"--is extra-special. It's short but powerful, and it includes some really interesting covers. And, holy crap, their treatment of "Venus in Furs," which just happens to be one of my very favorite songs of all time, is just totally sublime. You can hear it if you go the site and "sign up" with a throwaway email address. Perhaps not the best way to support the band, but don't worry--I already bought a copy, fair and square. Confidential to Bakon: do you know these guys? They have a theremin!  ¶ 6:02 PM

  wow Just...wow.

If you want to take a job at some public universities in Ohio, you’ll need to fill out a form declaring that you have no ties (as described in six broad questions) to any terrorist groups as defined by the U.S. State Department. [. . .]

Many professors who would never help a terrorist group in any way would balk at answering questions such as these, which could be subject to interpretation or be used against professors who hold unpopular views. [Robert O'Neil, of the American Association of University Professors] also noted that there is not always broad agreement on which groups are terroristic and that asking professors whom they have persuaded to hold certain views is antithetical to academic values in many ways. [. . .]

Another flaw in the new law, [O'Neil] said, is that it won’t work. Would a terrorist committed to mass murder really lose sleep over giving a false answer on an Ohio form? “Real terrorists are not going to be deterred by this. If you have someone bent on infiltrating a state agency, it’s not going to do anything,” he said. All the new form does, he added, is create problems for “conscientious academics.”

"Terrorist groups as defined by the U.S. State Department"...like, for example, Greenpeace, Earth First!, and the Cuban government. And, hell, I don't know, probably the National Lawyers Guild and Planned Parenthood and Amnesty and the freakin' Democratic Party, too. Awesome.  ¶ 1:29 PM

  wtf... Okay, now there's video. On CNN. It helps to speak Spanish, but it's hardly necessary. I'm so, so confused.  ¶ 5:39 PM

  if you haven't seen 'em yet... Photos of Fidel and Chávez (and even of Raúl!) are posted in today's Granma.  ¶ 8:15 AM

  dick lourie's "forgiving our fathers" I posted this several years ago on the old blog after I first saw "Smoke Signals," but I came across it again today and it speaks to me more than ever, especially with all the shit that's going on with my own dad right now. This goddamn poem makes me cry every time I read it, and apart from Kipling's "The Palace", it's the only poem that I can recite from memory.

maybe in a dream: he's in your power
you twist his arm but you're not sure it was
he that stole your money you feel calmer
and you decide to let him go free

or he's the one (as in a dream of mine)
I must pull from the water but I never
knew it or wouldn't have done it until
I saw the street-theater play so close up
I was moved to actions I'd never before taken

maybe for leaving us too often or
forever when we were little maybe
for scaring us with unexpected rage
or making us nervous because there seemed
never to be any rage there at all

for marrying or not marrying our mothers
for divorcing or not divorcing our mothers
and shall we forgive them for their excesses
of warmth or coldness shall we forgive them

for pushing or leaning for shutting doors
for speaking only through layers of cloth
or never speaking or never being silent

in our age or in theirs or in their deaths
saying it to them or not saying it

if we forgive our fathers what is left  ¶ 7:59 PM

  Not the best day for Hugo to leave Caracas... The BBC is reporting that Chávez's biggest political rival, Carlos Ortega, has escaped from prison. This is the union leader who basically orchestrated Venezuela's general strike in 2002, and he was sentenced to sixteen years in the pokey for it. Apparently he (allegedly) escaped with a couple of military officers and "may have been aided by some authorities." Hmmmm. Heading back to Costa Rica? Miami? The mountains to launch an insurgency? Definitely worth keeping an eye on this one...  ¶ 3:58 PM

  other evidence I'm glad that there are other people out there who are even more obsessed than I am. And at the higher resolution, yeah, it's clearly an Adidas tracksuit (!) German company, okay, but one that is still strongly associated with the US market and particularly the US sports-industrial complex. What in the hell is going on down there???!  ¶ 3:01 PM

  birthday action Today's Granma has photos of Fidel insisting that he "feels very happy!" One of the photos does that creepy "look, the hostage is still alive thing" of posing Castro holding up a copy of yeterday's newspaper. I'm not buying it yet--let's see if he follows that up with some kind of birthday announcment. If he really does look this good, we should hear something from the guy. Plus Chávez is apparently on his way to town, which definitely means photo-op. STILL no freaking Raúl. The weirdness isn't going to stop anytime soon. And, dude, that isn't an Adidas logo on his little jacket, is it??!

**Update: I thought something looked extra-weird about the newspaper photo:



Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the "Granma" banner usually/always in red, not black? All the copies I brought back from Cuba have red banners, as do all the copies I dug out of the library basement for my thesis...as are all of the editions I can find with a google image search for "granma." But maybe weekend editions are different or something...? I wish I had a hard copy of yesterday's edition to compare...  ¶ 10:17 AM

  in light of recent events... I hate to give Tommy-boy space on V-L, but he was really onto something with this one, and, well, not everyone *ahem!* has Times Select.

Naked Air

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN (NYT)
Published: December 26, 2001

In the wake of the attempted bombing last week of the American Airlines flight from Paris by a terrorist nut with explosives in his shoe, I'm thinking of starting my own airline, which would be called: Naked Air. Its motto would be: ''Everybody flies naked and nobody worries.'' Or ''Naked Air -- where the only thing you wear is a seat belt.''

Think about it. If everybody flew naked, not only would you never have to worry about the passenger next to you carrying box cutters or exploding shoes, but no religious fundamentalists of any stripe would ever be caught dead flying nude, or in the presence of nude women, and that alone would keep many potential hijackers out of the skies. It's much more civilized than racial profiling. And I'm sure that it wouldn't be long before airlines would be offering free dry-cleaning for your clothes while you fly.

Well, you get the point: if the terrorists are just going to keep using technology to become better and better, how do we protect against that, while maintaining an open society -- without stripping everyone naked? I mean, what good is it to have a free and open America when someone can easily get on an airplane in Paris and bring a bomb over in the heel of his shoe or plot a suicide attack on the World Trade Center from a cave in Kandahar and then pop over and carry it out?

This is America's core problem today: A free society is based on openness and on certain shared ethics and honor codes to maintain order, and we are now intimately connected to too many societies that do not have governments that can maintain order and to peoples who have no respect for our ethics or our honor codes.

Remember the electronic ticket machines that were used for the Boston-New York-Washington shuttles? Ever use one? Not only were you automatically issued your ticket with a credit card by pressing a touch-screen, but they asked you -- electronically -- ''Did you pack your bags yourself?'' and ''Did any strangers give you anything?'' And you answered those security questions by touching a screen! Think about the naïve trust and honor code underlying those machines.

If I had my way they would now take all those machines and put them in a special room in the Smithsonian museum called: ''Artifacts From America Before Sept. 11, 2001.''

We're not alone. I just flew in and out of Moscow, where you now have to fill out a detailed customs form. It asks the usual questions: Are you carrying any fruits, plants, large amounts of foreign currency, special electronics or weapons? But there was one box that unnerved me a bit. It asked: Are you carrying any ''radioactive materials?'' Hmm, I wondered, how many people (i.e. smugglers) are going to check that box? Can you imagine going through Moscow customs and the couple in front of you turning to each other and asking: ''Dear, did we pack the nuclear waste in your suitcase or mine?'' Or, ''Honey, is the plutonium in your purse or the black duffel?'' I don't think so.

Which is why we are entering a highly problematic era, one that we are just beginning to get our minds around. We are becoming much more keenly aware of how freedom and order go together (see the Ashcroft debates). For America to stay America, a free and open society, intimately connected to the world, the world has to become a much more ordered and controlled place. And order emerges in two ways: It is either grown from the bottom up, by societies slowly developing good democratic governance and shared ethics and values, or it is imposed from the top down, by non-democratic, authoritarian regimes rigidly controlling their people.

But in today's post-cold-war world, many, many countries to which we are connected are in a transition between the two -- between a rigid authoritarian order that was imposed and voluntary self-government that is being home-grown. It makes for a very messy world, especially as some countries -- Afghanistan being the most extreme example -- are not able to make the transition.

''The problem with top-down control is that more governments around the world are fragmenting today, rather than consolidating,'' said the Israeli political theorist Yaron Ezrahi. ''At the same time, America's technologies are being universalized -- planes that go faster and faster and electronics that are smaller and smaller -- but the American values and honor system that those technologies assume have not been universalized. In the hands of the wrong people they become weapons of mass destruction.''

So there you have our dilemma: Either we become less open as a society, or the world to which we are now so connected has to become more controlled -- by us and by others -- or we simply learn to live with much higher levels of risk than we've ever been used to before.

Or, we all fly naked.  ¶ 9:58 AM

  a small bloggery observation So, it has been bugging me for a while that all of the high-profile pinko-commie blogger types are pretty much ignoring Cuba, while the moonbat right-wingers are all over it. But I'm beginning to notice that the Cuba attention deficit is actually part of a much bigger, scarier trend--one that speaks to long-standing partisan stereotypes and makes me very, very afraid: the left isn't really blogging about foreign affairs or international issues at all. Atrios has nothing about London today, even though he does talk about the Daily Show's coverage of the CT primary. Kos and Marshall have touched on the subject a little, but really only so far as it reflects on GWB and the midterm races. General blog-coverage of Lebanon on the left is pretty damn feeble, even while the right whips itself into a photoshop/media bias frenzy (a frenzy that, to make matters worse, is actually not entirely without merit).  ¶ 2:27 PM

  aha ha haha! This:



...is on the front page of Granma's English edition this morning. Here's the rest of the opening bit:

...tone of the George W. Bush government toward Cuba. The movie star, a man dedicated to bringing art to the masses, through which he came to identify with Cuba, visited Havana a few years ago with director Soderbergh and the producers of Traffic to premiere that film on the island. In this way he joins a prestigious gathering of actors and artists who are defending Cuba’s sovereignty in the face of the powerful forces that are threatening it. Danny Glover, Harry Belafonte, Leticia Spiller, María Rojo, Gael García Bernal, Rodrigo de la Serna and Santiago García can also be found in this sizeable group.

In other Granma news, ummm, this little news item. A five-fold increase in alcohol production on the island???? Yeeeeah, Raúl is definitely in charge.  ¶ 10:15 AM

  Josh Marshall on London President Bush just said the events in London are "a stark reminder that this nation is at war with Islamic fascists."

Also a pretty stark reminder that President Bush's War on Terror, the way he's chosen to fight it, is at best irrelevant to combatting this sort of danger. These are homegrown Brits apparently trying to blow up planes over the Atlantic. Good thing we've got 150,000 or so troops in Iraq to take the fight to them.  ¶ 10:05 AM

  omg! I just discovered "Heridas de Amor" on cable!!! My life is complete!  ¶ 7:35 PM

  "Five Heroes" lose on appeal I just heard about this and don't know all the details yet, but here's a link to the opinion if you're as interested as I am. These are the 5 self-confessed agents who claimed not to be spying on the U.S. government but rather on various anti-Castro terrorist organizations. After their conviction in 2001, they argued that it's impossible for them to get an unbiased trial in Miami. Today's ruling (by the 11th Circuit Court) overturns the decision made by a three-judge panel about a year ago to grant a new trial in another, somewhat less hostile venue.  ¶ 6:51 PM

  nothing to report ...again. Sorry. We're now on Day 10 of Raúl Watch. Until I hear anything worth posting, this is a pretty great photo essay of contemporary life on the island--or, at least, late-Special-Period-life on the island.  ¶ 2:02 PM

  the Chávez factor...and other stuff This is all just getting weirder and weirder: Hugo has ordered his brother Adán to return to Caracas from Cuba, where Adán has been serving as ambassador for two years. No explanation, and no replacement. It's worth noting, too, that Hugo himself has not visited Cuba since this all started.

There is still absolutely no sight of Raúl, and Perez Roque is hardly to be seen, either--Lage and Alarcón are totally running the show. And Fidel's good friend Gabriel Garcia Marquez wrote what sounds to me an awful lot like a eulogy in Granma. The U.S. is talking about relaxing travel restrictions for Cubans in exile and is madly beaming TV Martí onto the island via a designated C130, which no one appears to be shooting down (or even really complaining about!) Castro is widely expected to at least make some kind of statement on his birthday, which is in 5 days...

**Updates: 1. I'm a big sucker. The Garcia Marquez piece was written years ago, and the editors of Granma have just trotted it out for the occasion. Shoulda known. And 2: Gustavo "Ulises" Arcos Bergnes died today, at age 79. Arcos was one of those I-rode-with-Fidel-and-the-revolution-failed-me dissidents, and a widely-known and respected one at that, but he had even more cred than most since he was shot--and paralyzed--at Moncada.  ¶ 1:32 PM

  more AK news (there is no meaningfully new Cuba news to report this morning; not even any decently juicy Cuba gossip. Although there has also still been absolutely no sight of Raúl. I have no idea what to make of it, except a) he's totally, totally dead or b) see my previously-mentioned extreme binge-drinking hypothesis.)

In other news, though, BP found "unexpectedly severe corrosion" in the AK pipeline and shut down Prudhoe Bay. This, at least according to the NYT, will cut domestic oil production by 8%--or about 1/3 the amount we import daily from Venezuela. Full story here.

Also, is it just me, or does this shot of the pipeline look right out of "Joe vs. the Volcano" or what?

  ¶ 11:37 AM

  "the pork tasted like pork" One thing that was very, very clear from my thesis-research trip to Miami last year was the idea that nobody remembers pre-Castro Cuba as well as those of us who were not there. This little slideshow really captures that idea better than I ever could, and not even in an entirely self-aware way. Ay, Cuba.  ¶ 11:18 AM

  Russia: not looking so good According to a couple of experts on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Putin is moving ever-closer to that deadly third term:

Peter Reddaway, an Emeritus Professor of Political Science & International Affairs at George Washington University and a member of its Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, and Donald Jensen, RFE/RL's Director of Communications, both agreed Russia is "not a democracy" and that under "ever greater authoritarianism," or prompted by a domestic crisis, Putin might seek to prolong his time in office.

Reddaway observed that the "most plausible scenario" is for Putin to "opt for early elections" both to the Duma and for the presidency, because Putin would want to "act before he becomes a lame duck" so that he is in a position "to exert maximum control over the succession process," By acting early, while economic and political conditions remain favorable, Putin will have less trouble promoting his own candidate and will catch international observers, as well as "what is left of the opposition" off-guard. The "element of surprise can be very valuable in an authoritarian system," Reddaway said.

In reviewing the way in which Russia "is ruled" today, Jensen said that the system shares "significant continuities with the Yeltsin era," in that "money and power are closely interrelated" and "are not separated by the rule of law." The president acts as an arbiter that "maintains and balances the demands" of a divided elite, who pursue self-interest by selecting a successor able to "maintain the status-quo," according to Jensen. National elections simply serve to "validate the elite's selection," Jensen said.

Due to a fractious elite, weak rule of law, and the Russian governance system's patrimonial character, Jensen concluded the system is "highly fragile" and "fundamentally unstable... especially as succession approaches." The system "remains in balance" and is allowed to function due to the "passivity of the population." If in-fighting among the ruling elites were to reach such a level that the population's passivity was to end, the system could easily be subject to "an abrupt change," Jensen said.

In other morning news, Reuters admits to doctoring photos (badly) from Lebanon; Hong Kong just passed an incredibly repressive surveillance law; Hezbollah just carried out its deadliest attack yet on Israel; and the latest Cuba rumor is that Castro is scheduled for a second surgery.

Maybe things will be better after I have some coffee.  ¶ 10:45 AM

  AK news Legendary sled dog musher and fearless Alaskan character Susan Butcher just died, after a long and awful battle with leukemia. She was only 51. That woman was an incredible inspiration to my whole generation of uppity Alaskan girls. She pissed everyone off, occasionally seemed capable of relating exclusively to canines, and just generally kicked a whole lot of ass. When I was a kid, a popular t-shirt (originally inspired by Libby Riddles but fully institutionalized by Butcher's seemingly unstoppable streak) read: "Alaska--Where Men are Men and Women Win the Iditarod." Damn straight. The note at the end of the story about her cabin in the White Mountains and the team of "lovingest" dogs waiting for her there really messed me up. What a shitty, shitty, totally unfair bummer.  ¶ 8:57 PM

  Mexico: learning from Florida A seven-member electoral tribunal on Saturday unanimously rejected a demand from the leftist candidate for president for a complete recount of votes in last month’s election, setting the stage for more protests by thousands of people who have camped out in the capital claiming that the election was fraudulent.

Full story here.  ¶ 4:46 PM

  the news * A Brazilian newspaper reports that Pres. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been told that Castro has cancer, and he responded by saying--on record, one assumes--"It looks like we are going to lose our friend."

* Some hot-shot astrologist in Miami has everyone convinced that according to Castro's chart (I'm so totally not making this up), he isn't dead yet, but is going to kick the bucket between the 7th and 27th of this month. Way to take a serious professional risk, lady.

* The provisional Cuban government--whoever and whatever it currently consists of--reassured the citizens of Cuba again today that everything is a-ok, and it even managed to issue its first decree since Fidel stepped down. The decree condemns Israel's bombing of the Lebanese village of Qana as a "cowardly, vile and criminal act," and urges the world to force an immediate cease-fire.

* Condi Rice beamed herself into the country via TV Martí and encouraged everyone to take advantage of uncertainty and fight--but not too hard, because we don't want any trouble--for democracy.

* The Party newspaper dedicated yet more page space to yet more Raúl-love, dragging up and reprinting a newspaper from 1953 that proves his revolutionary loyalty during the Moncada disaster. The story basically recounts Raul's decision to assume responsibility for the 1953 attack on a military barracks after he believed his brother was killed. Of course, when he discovered that in fact Fidel had survived, Raul returned to his role as soldier. How dutiful.

* In related news, Cuban citizens spotted reading the Party newspaper for the first time in decades. In general, the thing has a well-deserved reputation for being low-cost toilet paper.  ¶ 12:10 PM

  military out in force in Cuba's east? From the wires...

By LAURA WIDES-MUNOZ
Gainesville Sun

Dissidents in Cuba's eastern provinces said Friday the country's military has beefed up its presence on the streets and is telling citizens they have permission to respond with force against anyone who speaks out against the government.

In a series of interviews conducted by phone in Miami, dissidents told The Associated Press they are fearful about retaliations against political opponents of the government."Everybody now knows that that Fidel is ill, but everyone is waiting," said Juan Carlos Gonzalez Leiva, 41, an attorney from the province of Ciego de Avila. "They are wondering what is going to happen. There is a grave silence. It's like being in the center of a hurricane."

Gonzalez, who became blind as a child and went on to study law in Havana, was accused in 2002 of insubordination to Castro and spent more than two years in prison. His case gained international attention after Amnesty International called for his release.Gonzalez said that on Tuesday officials met with neighborhood watch groups to encourage them to look out for anyone who might speak against Castro.

"My concern right now is for the political prisoners in this country, and what could happen to them," Gonzalez said. He said that on Wednesday night a mob came to the home of Yamile Llanes, who is wife of Jose Luis Garcia Penequi, and threatened her. Garcia was among one of 75 political opponents rounded up by the Cuban government in 2003 and accused of being on the U.S. government payrolls. Both the dissidents and Washington denied the allegation. He remains incarcerated.

Gonzalez said he and others are asking that the government holds free elections and urged other Cubans not to participate in mob attacks, or "repudios" as they are called, against dissidents.Gonzalez said his wife fled to the U.S. last year after being repeatedly harassed in government-sponsored attacks, but he refused to leave.

"Yes, everyone would like to live in liberty, but there are commitments you make for country and people," he said.

The Miami-based nonprofit Cuban Democratic Directorate, which provides support to dissidents in Cuba, patched through the calls to Gonzalez and the other dissidents. The group receives funding from the U.S. government through the International Republican Institute and the National Endowment for Democracy.

In Banes, in the Holguin province, Guillermo Llanos Ricardo, 30, said the town's only independent library was surrounded by citizen patrol groups checking the identification of anyone seeking to enter.

"These are well-known groups that have incited violence against dissidents in the past," he said. Meanwhile, Eliecer Consuegra Rivas, 33, the head of the opposition group Eastern Democratic Alliance in the city of Antilla also in Holguin, attributed the relative calm on the streets to fear of reprisal. He said he has been repeatedly warned not to speak out informally by neighbors and officially by government representatives.

"The messages they are getting to us every day are that shouldn't leave our home or talk," said the former elementary school basketball coach. "They tell people not to have pity. And that they should do what they want with those they see demonstrating against the government."

Consuegra, who supports the Varela project led by renowned Cuban activist Oswaldo Paya, said he was accused in July of owning a stolen fax even though he showed officials a receipt that proved he bought the machine from a government-run store.   ¶ 5:36 PM

  suggestions for future research... Anita Snow has a pretty good article highlighting the same diversity of responsibility in Castro's designated succession team that I mentioned the other day. Under Fidel's scheme, Raúl is only part of a more collective leadership strategy--one that also gives Carlos Lage and Felipe Pérez Roque quite a bit of power, but that ultimately means a more classically Marxist-Leninist, ideologically-driven, party vanguard-based leadership. Not a perfectly coherent one, though--Lage is not nearly as ideological as Pérez Roque is, and I'm not sure how compatible his reform tendencies will be with the more robust bluster of "los Taliban"--especially with Chávez in the picture. Ohhhhh, Hugo. You are such a huge pain in my ass. (Today's NYT article on the Venezuelan connection is also a good read).

Man, has it ever been a better time to be hopelessly addicted to Cuba? There are going to be so many competing interests and ideas, so many people and things to watch and to watch out for, so many super-interesting institutional comparisons to be made--no matter what happens next. Even if Fidel makes a miraculous recovery and delivers a 5-hour speech from his hospital bed tomorrow, the lid has already been blown off: ambitions revealed, pathologies exposed. Things are only going to get more interesting, and the place is going to be an incredible laboratory for the study of comparative politics for the forseeable future. This is the kind of thing nerdy political scientists like myself get unbelievably excited about, no matter the geographical setting--that this is happening in my much-adored Cuba is just about enough to make my head explode. But, you know, in a really good way.  ¶ 11:38 AM

  bor-ring Apart from CNN hiring one of Fidel's daughters as a "network contributor", not much changed overnight. The stress is really starting to get to me, though--NPR was doing what seemed to be an extra-comprehensive review of Fidel's tenure when I woke up this morning, and I immediately saw a red blinking light indicating new voicemail, so I was pretty sure word of that big coup Miami keeps talking about must have gotten out. It kind of sucks to be stuck in this far-flung timezone at the moment.  ¶ 11:29 AM

  well, okay then Since Raúl hasn't appeared, the current rumor on Miami radio is that both Castro brothers are dead, there's been a military coup, and there's currently a struggle to the death in the Politburo for the leadership. It really is pretty damn weird that Raúl still hasn't appeared, and obviously there's something fishy going on (Raúl's binge-drinking, perhaps? He does have a history: after basically ordering the death of dear friend and comrade Arnaldo Ochoa in 1989, Raúl went on quite the grief-stricken bender and gave such a bizarre and incoherent performance in front of the military that the party's official newspaper was compelled to make excuses for him the next day). But, seriously, a successful coup against both brothers? By whom, exactly, and with what army??! Have I mentioned how sick of Miami radio I am?  ¶ 8:50 PM

  GWB finally weighs in Just-released statement from the White House:

The United States is actively monitoring the situation in Cuba following the announcement of a transfer of power. At this time of uncertainty in Cuba, one thing is clear: The United States is absolutely committed to supporting the Cuban people’s aspirations for democracy and freedom. We have repeatedly said that the Cuban people deserve to live in freedom. I encourage all democratic nations to unite in support of the right of the Cuban people to define a democratic future for their country. I urge the Cuban people to work for democratic change on the island. We will support you in your effort to build a transitional government in Cuba committed to democracy, and we will take note of those, in the current Cuban regime, who obstruct your desire for a free Cuba.

In the event of a transition in the Cuban government, we stand ready to provide humanitarian assistance as needed to help the Cuban people. It has long been the hope of the United States to have a free, independent, and democratic Cuba as a close friend and neighbor. In achieving this, the Cuban people can count on the full and unconditional support of the United States.

Shockingly low-key, if you ask me, especially if you've read last month's CAFC report. But, hey, I'm all for pissing off Miami. One question, though: what the hell does "we will take note of those, in the current Cuban regime, who obstruct your desire for a free Cuba" actually mean? Does it meant that we will "take note" of people like, say, Pérez-Roque and Alarcón like we "took note" of, say, the Republican Guard in Iraq? Or will we "take note" in an even more extreme fashion? Or will we perhaps, this time, allow competitive party development to occur in a somewhat-organic manner? I can't really imagine a fuzzier and more ridiculous thing to say on the subject, and it's sort of a crucial subject.  ¶ 2:57 PM

  distraction of the day Man, I really hope these guys show up at some Lashes party in the near future.  ¶ 2:40 PM

  somewhat reliable gossip Fidel's sister Juanita, who lives in Miami and has a long-estranged if still-loving relationship with him, says that the man is "not dead. He's very sick, but he's not dead." I'm inclined to believe that, especially since I also don't think that Alarcón would have put his future political well-being at such extreme risk by lying about it. Unless Raúl has a gun to his head, I suppose--but where the hell is Raúl, anyway? Even Cubans are starting to get a little weirded out by his silence, which is starting to seem really inappropriate and kind of ominous.  ¶ 9:56 AM

  orange revolution turns a little more brown Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has backed his arch-rival Viktor Yanukovych for prime minister, ending a four-month political stand-off.

Mr Yushchenko said he acted after Mr Yanukovych had agreed to sign a pact that preserves key areas of the pro-Western president's policies.

I was afraid of this.  ¶ 8:51 AM

  pobre, pobre Cuba I mean, seriously. The poor bastards can't get a break.  ¶ 7:11 PM

  in case anyone is interested... This article in this week's New Yorker is a great general introduction to post-Soviet Cuba, and the timing is sort of remarkable (it went to press several days before the current crisis). The author (who lived in Cuba during the Special Period) touches on some really important issues--especially the stealthy but potentially very stubborn presence of young, ideologically militant Castro devotees whom many Cubans quitely call "los Taliban." People seem to forget that after the bloody political purge in the late 80s, the brothers installed a whole cadre of fiercely loyal now-40-somethings in very high level government positions. Perhaps most importantly, though, he also throws in a couple of my all-time favorite Castro jokes, including that great one about the Galápagos turtle. Bueno.  ¶ 6:45 PM

  busy bee After wandering around signing various deals with Iran, Belarus, and Russia, Chávez also just signed a few agreements with Vietnam, but they're pretty toothless--Vietnam's not in any special hurry to get on Hugo's angry little train. Apparently, his original schedule in Vietnam included visits to a military museum and a center for children "suffering from health problems blamed on defoliating chemicals used in the war by the US"--but those field trips didn't actually happen. Probably not exactly the kind of photo ops that Vietnam is looking to encourage as it seeks to join the WTO this year...  ¶ 2:51 PM

  nothing to declare Things are pretty much the same. The US gubmint is beginning to mobilize in some interesting ways--most notably by expanding anti-Castro radio and TV broadcasts to the island. I've been reading so many frothing-at-the-mouth crazy-eyed right-wing Miami blogs that I'm starting to feel a bit ill. But then again, one of my friends on Facebook updated her status to reflect that she is "praying for Fidel's health and speedy recovery," and that doesn't make me feel very good, either. In somewhat-related news, I just found out I'm going to be helping put together a book on the island's post-Soviet foreign policy--incredibly awesome, but a little scary, too; it seems like a responsibility that I hardly deserve. No matter how much I learn about Cuba, I don't think I'll ever feel like I know enough.  ¶ 12:25 PM

  I'm minutes away from catching a plane ...but Fidel issued a statement saying he's "in a stable condition...perfectly good health" post-surgery. Whatever. Still didn't read it in his own voice. We DID finally hear from Alarcón, which means he hasn't been completely marginalized. According to some rather sketchy sources, one party official insists that Fidel has "given his life to keep the revolution alive." Other rumors abound. Personally, I think the go-ahead-and-postpone-my-birthday-party-until-december thing is a serious signal. More info as soon as I can post again.  ¶ 8:41 PM

  additional insight One of my peeps on the ground just mentioned a couple of really key things that haven't been getting enough attention:

1) Fidel didn't delegate all of his powers to Raúl--just the most important ones. My peep suggests this implies that nobody on the succession team is very worried about internal order debates at the top (perhaps because Alarcón and Ibarra are being left out of the loop? Is that really, um, the greatest way to secure consensus?)

2) Raúl has yet to give a public speech. That really is very odd.  ¶ 5:16 PM

  okay, just one more thing... Here are some excerpts from the announcement speech (read by Carlos Valenciaga, Castro's secretary)

As a result of the enormous effort [I] made to visit the Argentine city of Cordoba to participate in the reunion of Mercosur . . . and in the visit to Altagracia, the city where Che spent his childhood . . . my health, which has withstood all trials, was subjected to extreme stress and broke down.

This provoked an acute intestinal crisis, with sustained bleeding, that obliged me to face a complicated surgical operation. All details of this health accident are evident in the X-rays, endoscopies, and filmed materials. The operation obliges me to spend several weeks in repose, away from my responsibilities and duties.

Because our country is threatened in these circumstances by the government of the United States, I have made the following decisions:

1. I delegate, on a provisional basis, my functions as First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba upon the Second Secretary, comrade Raul Castro Ruz.

2. I delegate, on a provisional basis, my functions as Commander in Chief of the Heroic Revolutionary Armed Forces upon the aforementioned comrade, Army Gen. Raul Castro Ruz.

3. I delegate, on a provisional basis, my functions as President of the Council of State and Government of the Republic of Cuba on the First Vice President, comrade Raul Castro Ruz.

4. I delegate, on a provisional basis, my functions as principal promoter of the national and international program of public health upon the member of the Political Bureau and Minister of Public Health, comrade Jose Ramon Balaguer Cabrera.

5. I delegate, on a provisional basis, my functions as principal promoter of the national and international program of education upon comrades Jose Ramon Machado Ventura and Esteban Lazo Hernandez, members of the Political Bureau.

6. I delegate, on a provisional basis, my functions as principal promoter of the national program of the energy revolution in Cuba, and cooperation with other countries on this field, upon comrade Carlos Lage Davila, member of the Political Bureau and Secretary of the Executive Committee of the Council of Ministers. . . .

I have not the slightest doubt that our people and our revolution will fight to the last drop of blood . . . On to victory always.

[signed]

Fidel Castro Ruz

July 31, 2006, at 6:22 p.m.  ¶ 1:35 AM

  a few other details before I give this up for the night This looks like the real thing, peeps. The state hospital where he's having the surgery was reportedly locked down completely sometime yesterday. The announcement of this surgery thing and transfer-of-power was important enough to justify an interruption of a very popular telenovela, which is a very, VERY rare move. And in case you've forgotten already, the man really did look like he was at death's door last week in Argentina, and again for the 7/26 speeches. Apparently things are pretty mellow in Cuba, with not much of an increased security presence on the coast or in Havana, but Miami is going apeshit. Holy crap.

  ¶ 1:12 AM